October to December 2023 to experience dry spell, IGAD Warns
Wajumanews
By: Khamis Cosmas Lokudu
Wajumanews
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre announced that the October to December 2023 climate forecast shows high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, there is an exceptionally high probability of 80% of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
On the other hand, probabilities indicate drier-than-usual conditions for isolated areas of south-western Uganda and south-western South Sudan. This was revealed by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre after the successful closure of the 65th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook held in Nairobi from 21st – 22nd August 2022.
As a result of the heavy rainfall experienced across much of the region from March to May 2023, increased precipitation from October to December 2023 may contribute to flooding.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director noted that we have now entered El Niño conditions which, for Eastern Africa are synonymous with wetter conditions during October, November, and December. After three years of devastating drought, this may be seen as a blessing for farmers. Still, it can quickly become a curse. Desert locusts are already proliferating to alarming levels in parts of the region.
The risk of deadly incidents also increases significantly. We all remember the last El Niño in 2015/16 when downpours of torrential rains caused landslides, flash floods, and buildings to collapse. Governments and disaster management agencies are advised to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods Guleid explained.
Dr. Hussen Seid, Climate Modelling Expert at IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center added. El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its effects can influence weather patterns worldwide. Another significant phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole is developing over the Indian Ocean and will reinforce the El Niño impacts Seid said.