Rainfall Forecast for January 2024 revealed

By:Khamis Cosmas Lokudu.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre has predicted the rainfall for January 2024 for the East Africa Region, the monthly and seasonal forecasts are especially relevant to the Government leadership of n the Greater Horn Africa region to provide advice to farmers.

 Expressly during wet weather, the forecast helps farmers across the region to prepare the land for Agricultural activities, harvest water, and initiate vaccination programs to control outbreaks of diseases.

Moderate rainfall of 50-200mm is expected over most parts of Burundi, Tanzania, and a few regions in southern and northern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia, and light rainfall of less than 50 mm is also expected in central to southern and eastern Ethiopia, northern and southern Somalia, eastern to central Kenya, central to southern Uganda and parts of central and western Tanzania per the January 2024 rainfall forecast by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre

The projection for Sudan and South Sudan shows dry conditions including Djibouti, central to northern Uganda, north-western Kenya, and western and eastern Ethiopia in the monthly forecast.

However, heavy rainfall of 90th to 95th percentiles is expected over part of northern Somalia into south-eastern Ethiopia, northern and southern Kenya, and eastern to southern Tanzania.

Wetter than usual conditions are estimated in northern Somalia, central to southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, eastern and north-western Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi, and Drier than usual conditions are likely in central to western Tanzania the IGAD Climate Prediction and application center added in its monthly release.

High-risk flash floods and flooding are predictable over southeastern and north-eastern Tanzania and northern and southern Kenya as a result of the heavy to very heavy rainfall, likely to worsen the flooding situation in the flood-prone areas

Moderate to high temperatures of 20-32℃ are expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.

Mild temperature condition of less than 20℃ is expected in several parts of central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of western Rwanda and Burundi.

Warmer than usual temperatures are anticipated over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa with isolated regions of cooler than average temperatures in parts of central Sudan and other isolated regions across the Greater Horn of Africa.

Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern regions of South Sudan according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application monthly rainfall season.

IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center is a Climate Center accredited by the World Meteorological Organization that provides Climate Services to 11 East African Countries. Their services aim at creating resilience in the region deeply affected by climate change and extreme weather.